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Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season
July Week Five Tropical Storm Edouard AoI: North Central Gulf of Mexico I haven't checked for model support but it looks very conducive for development there, i'd say starting tomorrow. A cluster is moving south and there's perfect high level outflow around the area. -Winter123 00:24, 28 July 2008 (UTC) :Ok no one else sees this. There is a symmetrical mid or low level circulation with good outflow and some convection, though it appears to be waning. We'll see how it is when we get the visible sat. back in the morning. -Winter123 04:41, 29 July 2008 (UTC) ::It's expected to move inland with no development, but it could bring some heavy storms to... NEW ORLEANS! 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:38, 29 July 2008 (UTC) :::It's now located near Alabama, and GFS actually predicts development. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:22, 2 August 2008 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Whoa! What the hell just popped up in the Gulf of Mexico? This thing came from nowhere and jumped right to medium risk and a recon target. This is a little too close for comfort...although it's so close that if it does become something, I doubt it'll have much time to get very strong. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :I think it might be from the previous system in the Gulf, so please see above, under 91L. INVEST, which it has surprisingly become! 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC) You could sort of say this is the same system, or part of it. Expected to hit Texas or Louisiana, probably as a TD. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:28, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :Moderate risk of development by NHC. I agree with your assessment of a TD max. - Enzo Aquarius 04:20, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::What? How is this an invest? There's a single thunderstorm being hit with shear and dry air. Though if that thing moving over LA and the thing moving WNW over cuba combines with it it may have a chance. -Winter123 07:05, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::Well, someone seems to think more highly of it: TCFA. --Patteroast 10:23, 3 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Edouard Wow. Expected to hit the Houston area as a TS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:00, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :And if this year (and last) are to be followed it'll become a hurricane right on the coast. -Winter123 23:49, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::From what I've seen with Dolly, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing become a hurricane now. This season is really throwing some curve balls. - Enzo Aquarius 23:58, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::Whoa, what the hell?! Edouard? 24 hours ago, this thing was nothing, now NHC says it has a chance to become a hurricane before it hits Texas. Man, that water in the Gulf is scary as hell this time of year. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:24, 4 August 2008 (UTC) ::::65mph Tropical Storm at landfall. - Salak 13:56, 5 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Edouard Yet to clear Houston and it's already dropped to a Tropical Depression. - Salak 20:53, 5 August 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AoI: Off Guinea This one might follow 98L in its tracks. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:51, 31 July 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Supposed to head into the south Caribbean as a cat 1. Yikes! Here comes another 'un. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:25, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :This one's a ways off from being anything. It's a wait-and-see kind of invest. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:48, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::Low risk of development, but lots of room for it to do so. Wait it out, could turn into something easily. - Enzo Aquarius 04:25, 3 August 2008 (UTC) August Week One 99L.INVEST Yay, NHC predicts medium-risk for development, developed from the northern remnants of 98L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:36, 1 August 2008 (UTC) :It's not remnants, it IS 98L. Tell them to look at a satellite archive and see how stupid they are. -Winter123 04:33, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::Total model dissagreement here. Some models head it into the open sea and toward Europe, while others head it as far west as the eastern Gulf. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:27, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :::Somewhat impressive. I wouldn't be shocked if this becomes something. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Although there's a moderate risk of development, satelite imagery shows...literally a few light rotating clouds? - Enzo Aquarius 04:24, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Looks like it's developed a little cloud cover over its circulation. Still doesn't look hugely promising that it'll end up doing anything. --Patteroast 13:54, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Based on WV id say it has no chance, at least for 3 days or so. -Winter123 22:12, 3 August 2008 (UTC) Why was it dropped again? Its north of PR and holding together and headed for Florida. Watch out this could pull a katrina. -Winter123 18:31, 5 August 2008 (UTC) :It could what??! All models (12/12) predict its remnants to turn northwards before hitting Florida. In fact even the remnants of 90L has a 5x better chance of pulling a Katrina. Please do not make such cataclysmic pronouncements! I only predict ten re-Katrinas for the entire rest of this century. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:10, 5 August 2008 (UTC) ::only 10? yeah id like to see 10 storms hit new orleans as a cat 3 in the next 100 years. Unless you mean 10 hurricanes hitting FL in 100 years, then thats possible but unlikely. 10 TS's is likely. -Winter123 18:40, 6 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Near Guinea The ITCZ has been tooting endlessly! Wait and see. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :I'm not sure if this is the same but this looks like Bertha #2. Same location and a well defined MLC at least. I'd be surprised to see this NOT become a hurricane. -Winter123 18:37, 6 August 2008 (UTC) Potential AoI: Near West Virginia CMC, GFS, and mm5fsu33a all predict something significant out of this, entering the Gulf Stream and strengthening. You can't say for sure that the other models ''don't develop something out of this, either. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:53, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :What????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? West Virginia is 100% sunny, and about 6 hours ago when you posted that, it had some high clouds that blew away. You're posting 100 aois every day with the hope of one being right. stop it. But if you're referring to the trough moving towards bermuda, i'd say 2% chance. Still not AoI worthy. -Winter123 18:42, 6 August 2008 (UTC) Program for use in tropical cyclone QPF ..but weather weenies might like it too. heheheh It's a series of scripts that are run in-house through a GUI named cliqr (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/web/cliqr.html), and it runs for all ATCF-entered invests. It shows the rainfall graphics for the systems that most closely match ongoing invests, with greater weight placed on location, size (ROCI), and forward motion than the other parameters. If nothing else, you can look at the list of matches and see where they went. Thegreatdr 23:41, 6 August 2008 (UTC)